The scoreboard.
Every US trading day at 11:00 AM ET — 90 minutes after the open, the moment the published accuracy starts — the day-session read for ES=F, NQ=F and QQQ is snapshotted verbatim. After the close the same endpoint is read again and the row is scored on the one question that can be scored objectively: did the session print a new high or a new low after the read, against the extension rates the read carried. Ties count as “no” — ambiguity always scores against the model. Days with no live read stay on the board as gaps. Recording began 2026-08-25 and no row is ever edited.
Forward record — live
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Historical replay — computed in hindsight
This block is not a track record. Frozen daytype_v4 weights replayed at the 18-bar (90-minute) mark on each completed RTH session; extension scored strictly (a tie counts as no extension). Computed in hindsight — this is a format demonstration and a cross-check against the pre-registered rates in extreme_by_daytype.json, not a track record.
Sessions strictly before 2026-08-26 only — the forward record begins 2026-08-26 and the two never overlap.
Sample is Yahoo Finance's 60-day 5-minute history. The pre-registered study behind the published rates used 16 years of ES sessions; these two sample sizes must never be mixed or compared as equals.
| Symbol | Days | Published calls | New high: predicted avg | New high: observed | New low: predicted avg | New low: observed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ES=F | 49 | 44 | 65% | 50% | 50% | 36% |
| NQ=F | 49 | 40 | 57% | 60% | 56% | 38% |
| QQQ | 59 | 48 | 59% | 63% | 55% | 38% |
Read the deviations honestly: with roughly 40–50 published calls per symbol, a 95% interval on an observed rate is about ±14 percentage points wide, and this particular 60-day window was a rising market — fewer new session lows print after 11:00 in a window like that. The pre-registered rates were measured on 16 years of ES sessions; this replay exists to show the format and to be checked against them, not to replace them.
ES=F — all 49 replayed sessions
| Session | Read at 18 bars | P(new high) | P(new low) | New high after? | New low after? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | reversal 35% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-17 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-18 | range 29% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-06-22 | trend down 28% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-06-23 | trend up 39% | 84% | 30% | no | no |
| 2026-06-24 | trend up 37% | 84% | 30% | printed | printed |
| 2026-06-25 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-06-26 | trend up 60% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-29 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-30 | trend up 57% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-01 | trend up 65% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-02 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-06 | trend up 43% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-07 | trend down 47% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-07-08 | reversal 28% | not published | not published | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-09 | trend up 28% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-10 | range 41% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-13 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-14 | trend up 34% | 84% | 30% | no | no |
| 2026-07-15 | range 40% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-16 | trend up 46% | 84% | 30% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-17 | trend up 53% | 84% | 30% | no | no |
| 2026-07-20 | trend down 62% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-21 | trend up 39% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-22 | range 28% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-23 | reversal 40% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-07-24 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-27 | trend down 82% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-28 | range 32% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-29 | trend down 62% | 23% | 80% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-30 | trend up 39% | 84% | 30% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-31 | trend down 42% | 23% | 80% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-03 | trend up 90% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-04 | trend up 89% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-05 | reversal 34% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-06 | trend up 33% | 84% | 30% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-07 | trend up 29% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-10 | trend up 44% | 84% | 30% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-11 | range 37% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-12 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-08-13 | trend up 87% | 84% | 30% | no | no |
| 2026-08-14 | reversal 37% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-17 | range 32% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-18 | range 32% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-19 | trend up 64% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-20 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-08-21 | range 29% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-24 | range 35% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-25 | trend down 60% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
NQ=F — all 49 replayed sessions
| Session | Read at 18 bars | P(new high) | P(new low) | New high after? | New low after? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | reversal 38% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-17 | range 36% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-18 | trend up 53% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-22 | range 31% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-23 | trending range 29% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-24 | range 27% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-06-25 | trend down 45% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-06-26 | trend up 47% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-29 | range 32% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-30 | trend up 42% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-01 | reversal 31% | not published | not published | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-02 | trend down 33% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-06 | trend up 44% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-07 | trend down 40% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-07-08 | range 33% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-09 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-10 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-13 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-14 | range 28% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-15 | trend down 78% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-16 | range 35% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-17 | trend up 28% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-20 | trend down 35% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-21 | trend up 40% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-22 | trending range 29% | not published | not published | printed | no |
| 2026-07-23 | reversal 41% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-07-24 | trend down 54% | 23% | 80% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-27 | trend down 84% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-07-28 | range 28% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-29 | trend down 61% | 23% | 80% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-30 | trend up 83% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-31 | trend down 43% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-08-03 | trend up 92% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-04 | trend up 62% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-05 | reversal 36% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-06 | trend up 74% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-07 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-10 | trending range 28% | not published | not published | no | no |
| 2026-08-11 | range 31% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-12 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-13 | trend up 93% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-14 | reversal 34% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-17 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-08-18 | reversal 33% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-19 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-08-20 | range 35% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-21 | range 37% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-24 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-08-25 | trend down 34% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
QQQ — all 59 replayed sessions
| Session | Read at 18 bars | P(new high) | P(new low) | New high after? | New low after? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-02 | trend up 55% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-03 | range 40% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-06-04 | range 31% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-05 | trend down 38% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-08 | trend up 65% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-09 | trend down 52% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-10 | trend up 36% | 84% | 30% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-11 | range 31% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-06-12 | trend up 32% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-15 | trend up 60% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-16 | reversal 38% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-17 | range 36% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-06-18 | trend up 57% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-22 | reversal 32% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-23 | trending range 29% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-06-24 | reversal 28% | not published | not published | printed | printed |
| 2026-06-25 | trend down 46% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-06-26 | trend up 46% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-29 | range 32% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-06-30 | trend up 44% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-01 | reversal 31% | not published | not published | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-02 | trend down 33% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-06 | trend up 47% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-07 | trend down 40% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-07-08 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-09 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-10 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-13 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-14 | range 27% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-15 | trend down 78% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-16 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-17 | trend up 32% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-20 | trend down 37% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
| 2026-07-21 | trend up 41% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-22 | trending range 29% | not published | not published | printed | no |
| 2026-07-23 | reversal 41% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-07-24 | trend down 56% | 23% | 80% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-27 | trend down 84% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-07-28 | range 28% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-29 | trend down 61% | 23% | 80% | printed | printed |
| 2026-07-30 | trend up 85% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-07-31 | trend down 43% | 23% | 80% | no | no |
| 2026-08-03 | trend up 92% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-04 | trend up 64% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-05 | reversal 36% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-06 | trend up 74% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-07 | range 38% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-10 | trending range 28% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-11 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-12 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-13 | trend up 93% | 84% | 30% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-14 | reversal 34% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-17 | range 30% | 60% | 60% | printed | printed |
| 2026-08-18 | reversal 33% | not published | not published | no | printed |
| 2026-08-19 | range 29% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-08-20 | range 35% | 60% | 60% | no | printed |
| 2026-08-21 | range 37% | 60% | 60% | printed | no |
| 2026-08-24 | range 34% | 60% | 60% | no | no |
| 2026-08-25 | trend down 34% | 23% | 80% | no | printed |
Replay generated 2026-08-26T02:28:36+00:00 by research/measure_scoreboard_replay.py on frozen production weights; the file is committed once and does not update. The methodology behind the extension rates is on the methodology page, and the day-type model itself is described in the research notes.