Members name up to 10 tickers, and every trading day — 90 minutes after each market's open — this report lands in their inbox: the five day-type probabilities with a confidence grade, and the window's first range breakout with its measured failure rates. The samples below are written by the exact pipeline the desk uses, on real bars.
Historical replays from real five-minute bars: each sample shows the read exactly as it stood 90 minutes after that session's open, run through the same pipeline members' emails use. Selected examples, dated in each card; not archived live sends.
NVIDIA · NVDA
NVDA at the 90-minute mark — your MADDOG read
From: MADDOG <info@maddog.finance> · Historical replay · Aug 14, 2026, 90 minutes after the open
Your MADDOG opening read on NVDA.
Generated 11:00 ET, about 90 minutes into the 2026-08-14 session.
NVDA — 18 five-minute bars read
open 226.8 · high 227.49 · low 224.5 · last 226.1 · +0.32% vs prev close
HOW SESSIONS LIKE THIS ONE RESOLVED
Of 100 past sessions that looked like this at the same point:
Range 40%
Reversal 24%
Trending range 22%
Trend down 7%
Trend up 7%
Confidence grade 'mixed': this combination of model conviction and nearest-session agreement was right 62% of the time on held-out ES (baseline 66%).
THE BROOKS EVENT
10:45 — first breakout of this window: price closed above the 224.5–226.59 range that had held for the prior 10+ bars. The model's pre-event failure estimate was at 67 in 100; it did fail — 1 bars later price closed back below 226.59, rejecting the upward attempt.
Reference rates were measured on ES; the conditional model was validated on ES, NQ and QQQ. On this symbol both are context, not validated claims — descriptive use.
Educational analytics, not investment advice.
Tesla · TSLA
TSLA at the 90-minute mark — your MADDOG read
From: MADDOG <info@maddog.finance> · Historical replay · Aug 14, 2026, 90 minutes after the open
Your MADDOG opening read on TSLA.
Generated 11:00 ET, about 90 minutes into the 2026-08-14 session.
TSLA — 18 five-minute bars read
open 342.33 · high 351.26 · low 340.95 · last 341.2 · +0.33% vs prev close
HOW SESSIONS LIKE THIS ONE RESOLVED
Of 100 past sessions that looked like this at the same point:
Reversal 36%
Range 31%
Trending range 20%
Trend down 7%
Trend up 6%
Confidence grade 'mixed': this combination of model conviction and nearest-session agreement was right 62% of the time on held-out ES (baseline 66%).
No range breakout has fired in this window yet. That is a finding, not an error — the definition fires at most once per window per day, and plenty of windows never produce one. The day_type read below does not depend on it.
Reference rates were measured on ES; the conditional model was validated on ES, NQ and QQQ. On this symbol both are context, not validated claims — descriptive use.
Educational analytics, not investment advice.
S&P 500 ETF · SPY
SPY at the 90-minute mark — your MADDOG read
From: MADDOG <info@maddog.finance> · Historical replay · Aug 14, 2026, 90 minutes after the open
Your MADDOG opening read on SPY.
Generated 11:00 ET, about 90 minutes into the 2026-08-14 session.
SPY — 18 five-minute bars read
open 778.54 · high 778.8 · low 776.74 · last 776.74 · -0.13% vs prev close
HOW SESSIONS LIKE THIS ONE RESOLVED
Of 100 past sessions that looked like this at the same point:
Reversal 36%
Range 25%
Trend down 24%
Trending range 14%
Trend up 2%
Confidence grade 'poor': this combination of model conviction and nearest-session agreement was right 41% of the time on held-out ES (baseline 66%).
THE BROOKS EVENT
10:20 — first breakout of this window: price closed below the 777.66–778.8 range that had held for the prior 10+ bars. Still open: 7 of 10 bars in, no close back above 777.66 yet; the model's failure estimate is at 67 in 100.
The downward breakout's 10-bar outcome: 7 of 10 bars in, no close back above 777.66 yet. Of 100 past breakouts that looked like this one, 67 closed back through the level within 10 bars.
Reference rates were measured on ES; the conditional model was validated on ES, NQ and QQQ. On this symbol both are context, not validated claims — descriptive use.
Educational analytics, not investment advice.
Bitcoin · BTC-USD
BTC-USD at the 90-minute mark — your MADDOG read
From: MADDOG <info@maddog.finance> · Historical replay · Aug 16, 2026, 90 minutes after the open
Your MADDOG opening read on BTC-USD.
Generated 11:00 ET, about 90 minutes into the 2026-08-16 session.
BTC-USD — 18 five-minute bars read
open 62990.5 · high 63035.4 · low 62988.5 · last 63035.2 · -0.03% vs prev close
HOW SESSIONS LIKE THIS ONE RESOLVED
Of 100 past sessions that looked like this at the same point:
Trend up 72%
Reversal 16%
Trending range 8%
Range 3%
Trend down 1%
Confidence grade 'good': this combination of model conviction and nearest-session agreement was right 95% of the time on held-out ES (baseline 66%).
THE BROOKS EVENT
10:20 — first breakout of this window: price closed above the 62988.5–62998.9 range that had held for the prior 10+ bars. Still open: 7 of 10 bars in, no close back below 62998.9 yet; the model's failure estimate is at 56 in 100.
The upward breakout's 10-bar outcome: 7 of 10 bars in, no close back below 62998.9 yet. Of 100 past breakouts that looked like this one, 56 closed back through the level within 10 bars.
Reference rates were measured on ES; the conditional model was validated on ES, NQ and QQQ. On this symbol both are context, not validated claims — descriptive use.
Educational analytics, not investment advice.